IP331.com | Online Tools
HomeStatistics ToolsPoisson Probability Calculator

Poisson Probability Calculator

Calculate P(X=k) with Step-by-Step Derivation

Average rate (λ)
Number of events (k)

Poisson Probability Formula

P(X = k) = (e^(-λ) × λ^k) / k!
Where: e ≈ 2.71828, λ = average rate, k = number of events
E[X] = λ, Var(X) = λ

Poisson probability calculates the probability of exactly k events occurring in a fixed interval given the average rate λ.

λ must be non-negative, k must be a non-negative integer.

What is Poisson Probability?

The Poisson distribution models the number of events occurring in a fixed interval of time or space, where these events occur with a known constant average rate and independently of the time since the last event.

Conditions

Rare events, independent occurrences, known average rate

Formula

P(X=k) = (e^(-λ) × λ^k) / k!

Expected Value

E[X] = λ, equals the average rate

Variance

Var(X) = λ, equals the mean

💡 Example: λ=3, k=2. P(X=2) = (e^(-3) × 3²) / 2! = (0.0498 × 9) / 2 = 0.224.

Applications

Quality Control Telecommunications Insurance Queueing Theory Rare Events

Frequently Asked Questions

What is Poisson probability?
Poisson probability calculates the probability of exactly k events occurring in a fixed interval (time/space), given average rate λ. P(X=k) = (e^(-λ) × λ^k) / k!.
When to use Poisson distribution?
Use Poisson for counting events in fixed interval: rare events, independent occurrences, known average rate, events don't affect each other.
What is lambda (λ)?
λ is the average rate parameter - average number of events in the interval. For Poisson, E[X] = Var(X) = λ.
Relationship between Poisson and binomial?
Poisson approximates binomial when n is large, p is small, and λ = n×p is moderate. Useful for rare events.

More Statistics Tools

Free online calculators and tools covering mathematics, unit conversion, text processing, and daily life. Accurate, fast, mobile-friendly, and completely free to use.

© 2026 IP331.com — Free Online Tools. All rights reserved.

About · Contact · Privacy Policy · Cookie Policy · Terms of Use · Disclaimer · Sitemap